It’s hard to believe we are here already, but June 1 officially marks the beginning of Meteorological Summer. Meteorologists divide the seasons into three-month blocks throughout the year, mainly for simplification of seasonal climate tracking. As we prepare to head into the summer months, long-range forecast models are indicating that a notable transition in the Pacific Ocean will play a large role in the upcoming seasonal weather patterns across the United States, due to the growing likelihood of El Niño development. El Niño conditions are present when ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific are warmer than normal, and this shift has important implications for the subsequent season’s weather in the United States. In fact, some research suggests that the largest El Niño episodes can reset the global climate for decades afterward for areas where El Niño has a big influence.
So, what does this mean for summer weather in the continental United States? In general, summers during a developing El Niño tend to favor above-average temperatures across large portions of the United States, especially in the western and southern U.S. Favored precipitation patterns during an El Niño summer typically lead to an increased chance for more rain and thunderstorms across parts of the southern U.S., particularly later in the season, which could be beneficial following the springtime drought which has been impacting these locations.
Current forecasts suggest the El Niño will continue to strengthen into the upcoming fall, continuing to influence seasonal weather patterns for the next several months. One positive implication of El Niño conditions lasting beyond the summer is that it could disrupt hurricane development in the tropical Atlantic. As a result, hurricane outlooks for the upcoming season, which begins June 1 and typically peaks in September, may be slightly below normal.
While day-to-day weather will still vary, the overall trend points toward a hotter-than-average summer with evolving rainfall patterns as El Niño begins to emerge. If you wish to learn more about how to most effectively track the weather and rainfall at your location to be more attuned to these seasonal shifts - whether for summer gardening, lawn irrigation, or drought monitoring purposes - STM Weather has several resources available in our STM Gardens Online Learning Library. These resources help those who rely on the weather better understand and work with it daily, so you can stay in tune with how this developing climate pattern will affect your local weather in the months ahead.
